Analyzing the Prospects of North Korea-Russia Military Cooperation

SEOUL — Following a rare summit between North Korea and Russia's leaders, the nations are reportedly strengthening their military ties, a development that may yield short-term benefits but is not expected to make a significant, lasting impact on economic and political spheres, According to Yonhap News Agency, experts on Wednesday.

According to Yonhap News Agency, the data shared by Washington, North Korea has dispatched over 1,000 containers filled with military equipment and munitions to Moscow, which is supposedly for use in the ongoing war against Ukraine. This has been followed by a statement from Britain's defense ministry, asserting that it is "almost certain" North Korean munitions have reached western Russia.

In return for its contributions, North Korea is presumed to seek the transfer of high-tech weapons technology from Russia, including a military spy satellite and a nuclear-powered submarine, aligning with its aspirations to advance its nuclear and missile programs.

“Russia is unlikely to provide something major in exchange for the artillery shells. It may supply some energy and food assistance, or dated weapons technology, but providing high-tech weapons technology would be too big of a loss for Russia,” noted Kim Byeong-yeon, an economics professor at Seoul National University during a forum hosted by the unification ministry and the state-run Korean Institute for National Unification. Kim also expressed skepticism about the potential economic benefits of normalized ties between the two nations, citing a lack of "synergy."

Concurring with this perspective, Junya Nishino, a political science professor at Japan's Keio University, characterized the current Russia-North Korea cooperation as "temporary and expedient" rather than "solid," emphasizing the paramount importance of North Korea's relationship with China in the long-term.

Despite these assessments, other experts urge caution, advising not to underestimate the geopolitical implications of strengthened ties between North Korea and Russia. Troy Stangarone, senior director at the Korea Economic Institute, suggested that these developing relationships, alongside a recovery in trade with China, offer North Korea some "breathing space."

Stangarone estimated that the North could potentially earn between US$300 million to $600 million per million artillery shells supplied to Russia, and highlighted the regime's multiple revenue streams, including from increased trade with China and cryptocurrency thefts.

“You know we are in a changing geographic and geopolitical situation and North Korea is taking advantage of that. It's in a better position than it was three years ago ... I think that's the real challenge that we face," Stangarone commented.

Andrei Lankov, a political science professor at Kookmin University, also acknowledged the shift, noting that the emergence of the Sino-U.S. rivalry has reduced the economic pressures on North Korea.

"A new era has begun and we don't know when it will end. The most important factor that has emerged is the Sino-U.S. rivalry," said Lankov. "North Korea had to engage in very complicated diplomacy over the past 20-30 years to resolve its economic difficulties, now it doesn't."