Seoul: Major global investment banks have revised their forecasts for South Korea's economic growth in 2026, driven by an upcycle in the global semiconductor industry. According to Yonhap News Agency, the Korea Center for International Finance (KCIF) reported that the average growth forecast for South Korea, which ranks as Asia's fourth-largest economy, was adjusted to 2.1 percent as of the end of January. This marks an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the median outlook published a month earlier. The revised forecast is more favorable than the Bank of Korea's projection of 1.8 percent and the South Korean government's forecast of 2 percent. Among the investment banks, Citi increased its forecast from 2.2 percent to 2.4 percent, attributing this optimism to a significant expected rise in semiconductor export growth, projected to more than double to 54 percent in 2026 from last year's 22 percent. UBS also raised its projection to 2.2 percent from 2 percent. Meanwhile, Nomura maintained its forecast at 2.3 percent. Barclays and Bank of America kept their projections at 2.1 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. JP Morgan and HSBC left their outlooks unchanged at 2 percent and 1.8 percent. Conversely, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast downward to 1.8 percent from 1.9 percent. Despite the positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, some institutions have expressed concerns over potential challenges facing non-tech industries, particularly due to ongoing risks associated with aggressive tariff policies implemented by the United States.
