Seoul: Whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will resume summit diplomacy with U.S. President Donald Trump is a matter of significant interest for the upcoming year. The potential meeting could be pivotal in addressing the long-standing nuclear issues of Pyongyang and in improving the strained relations with South Korea.
According to Yonhap News Agency, there are increasing prospects for a Kim-Trump summit coinciding with Trump's planned visit to China in April for discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both leaders have indicated a willingness to meet. However, North Korea's reluctance to engage in denuclearization talks and its strengthening ties with Russia may impede the regime from resuming dialogue with Washington.
Trump had previously met Kim at the inter-Korean truce village of Panmunjom in June 2019 and has since called for another meeting during his recent visit to South Korea. However, Kim did not respond to these overtures. A significant opportunity for a potential summit could arise during Trump's April trip to China, as he may seek engagement with North Korea to achieve a diplomatic success before the November midterm congressional elections.
The Institute for National Security Strategy recently published an outlook suggesting that the resumption of North Korea-U.S. summit talks could be a crucial turning point for the security landscape on the Korean Peninsula. Despite this, the institute predicted limited prospects for tangible results, as North Korea might demand substantial rewards or refuse to dismantle its weapons programs.
Kim, during a parliamentary meeting in September, expressed a conditional willingness to engage in dialogue with the U.S., provided Washington abandons its focus on denuclearization. The institute foresees that negotiations may center on reducing weapons programs rather than complete denuclearization, but these talks could quickly falter due to challenges in achieving concrete outcomes.
Experts also highlight the Russia-Ukraine war's outlook as a key factor influencing North Korea's willingness to engage with Washington. Pyongyang has aimed to leverage the conflict to strengthen its economic and diplomatic ties with Russia by providing military support. An early resolution to the war could weaken North Korea's alliance with Russia, prompting Pyongyang to seek more diverse international relations.
Hong Min from the Korea Institute for National Unification noted that the established alignment between Moscow and Pyongyang might persist for a year or two due to postwar needs like reconstruction, suggesting sustained cooperation.
Seoul is optimistic about Trump's April visit to China as a potential catalyst for progress in U.S.-North Korea relations and aims to seize the opportunity to restart dialogue with Pyongyang. Unification Minister Chung Dong-young, in a policy briefing to President Lee Jae Myung, proposed easing sanctions and suggested a package of cooperative projects to facilitate engagement if dialogue resumes.
Chung emphasized the importance of the period leading up to Trump's visit to China in shaping the security conditions on the Korean Peninsula. In this context, North Korea's ninth party congress, expected in January or February, warrants close attention for any indications regarding its stance toward Washington and Seoul.
The upcoming congress is anticipated to address a five-year national economic plan, personnel and constitutional issues, and foreign relations. There is speculation that the congress might enshrine in the constitution the regime's view of inter-Korean relations as those between two hostile nations, which could further complicate efforts by Seoul to reopen dialogue.