Seoul: The number of children entering elementary schools in South Korea is anticipated to drop below 300,000 for the first time this year, a consequence of the nation's persistently low birth rate, the education ministry announced Tuesday. The ministry has projected the number of new first graders at elementary schools nationwide to be 298,178 in 2026.
According to Yonhap News Agency, the decline in population is also expected to cause the total number of students in elementary, middle, and high schools across the country to fall below 5 million for the first time. Initially, the ministry projected that new elementary school enrollment would fall below 300,000 in 2027 but revised this projection after analyzing various factors, including registered population data.
Government data highlights a significant drop in first-grade enrolment, which fell below 700,000 at the start of the 2000s, decreasing from 713,500 in 1999 to 699,032 in 2000. The numbers continued to decline, from 534,816 in 2008 to 468,233 in 2009, and further to 401,752 in 2023, 353,713 in 2024, and 324,040 last year.
This year's estimate suggests a decrease of 25.8 percent, or 103,574 students, in just three years, the ministry highlighted. The downward trend is expected to persist, with projections indicating the number of new elementary school first graders will fall to 277,674 in 2027, 262,309 in 2028, 247,591 in 2029, 232,268 in 2030, and 220,481 in 2031. The 2031 estimate reflects a decrease of about 32 percent compared to last year's figures.
The total student population in elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide is expected to decline from 5,015,310 last year to 4,836,890 this year. Further decreases are anticipated, with numbers dropping to 4,661,385 in 2027, 4,488,023 in 2028, 4,280,164 in 2029, 4,056,402 in 2030, and 3,811,087 in 2031, according to the ministry.
This rapid decline in the school-age population poses a significant challenge to the local education sector. Schools at all levels are closing nationwide due to a lack of students, and some universities, particularly those outside the capital area, are facing difficulties in recruiting new students.