Seoul: A prominent expert has expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a future meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, citing geopolitical shifts and strategic interests as major obstacles. Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, shared his insights during a forum in Washington, suggesting that the possibility of such a summit is "slim to none."
According to Yonhap News Agency, Klingner's remarks come amid speculation surrounding Trump's potential visit to Asia, specifically Shenzhen, China, in November for a regional forum. The expert emphasized that any resumption of dialogue would hinge on the U.S.'s willingness to lower diplomatic expectations or Trump's readiness to offer concessions to North Korea.
Klingner noted growing expectations of Trump's potential diplomatic outreach to Kim, which some analysts perceive as a strategic move to enhance his image as a peacemaker while distracting public attention from the ongoing conflict in Iran ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
The expert further highlighted North Korea's strengthened position due to its alliances with Russia and China. He mentioned that Pyongyang receives substantial economic and military support from Russia and has resumed trade with China to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, North Korea's significant income from cryptocurrency-related activities has reduced its reliance on U.S. assistance and sanctions relief.
Klingner cautioned that Trump's attempts to engage with Pyongyang might overlook the interests of South Korea and Japan. He criticized Trump's decision to scale back joint military exercises with South Korea, describing it as a "trifecta of failure" that could undermine allied deterrence and inadvertently reward North Korea.
He also pointed out that Trump's approach to alliances, which he characterized as transactional, poses challenges to trilateral cooperation between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. Klingner expressed concern that Trump's actions could weaken the longstanding strategic consensus that supports the presence of U.S. forces overseas and the importance of alliances.
Klingner concluded by stating that while North Korea remains a significant threat, the biggest challenge facing the three countries is navigating the current U.S. administration's foreign policy approach.