Seoul:The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a significant multilateral trade pact involving 12 countries, including Japan, Australia, Canada, and Mexico. South Korea, which has free trade agreements with all CPTPP members except Japan and Mexico, sees potential benefits in joining, such as expanding export markets and enhancing trading conditions. However, membership could also expose domestic sectors like agriculture, livestock, and fisheries to increased competition and potential losses.
According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean government announced its intention to join the CPTPP on August 27 and began gathering public input. Preliminary estimates released on September 28 indicated that joining the pact would increase manufacturing output by an average of 6 trillion won ($4.5 billion) annually, but decrease output in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries by 850 billion won each year.
President Lee Jae Myung initially sought to reassure concerned sectors through a social media post, suggesting that those benefiting from the policy could support those adversely affected. However, at an October 6 Cabinet meeting, he called for a fresh start to discussions, signaling a shift from his earlier stance. This change was attributed to difficulties in securing support from farmers and fishers, exacerbated by a controversial nationwide farmland survey, which has become an obstacle to the CPTPP bid.
The government has faced criticism for retreating from policies that were hastily conceived without thorough cost and consequence assessments. Examples include the halted market-capitalization threshold delisting process and a scaled-back real estate tax reform. These reversals highlight the need for careful policy evaluation and consensus-building before announcements are made.
South Korea originally considered CPTPP membership in 2013 and revisited the idea in 2021 but has yet to submit a formal application. President Lee recently instructed the government not to apply this year, emphasizing the need to address farmers' and fishers' concerns. While this postponement does not signal an abandonment of the bid, it raises questions about the future of South Korea's trade strategy.
As the US-China tariff war challenges free trade, the CPTPP offers increasing importance. South Korea's trade with CPTPP members surpassed its trade with China and the United States last year, totaling $341 billion. Nonetheless, the government must ensure that its long-term competitiveness is not compromised by short-term political challenges.