Secretive Kim-Putin summit
Talks have significant implications for South, North Korea
Russian leader Vladimir Putin held a summit with his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-un Wednesday at Vostochny Cosmodrome, Russia's Far East space launch facility. The two leaders discussed an agreement that could significantly alter the relationship between North Korea and Russia, but that will also have substantial implications for South Korea.
After more than a year and a half of war, Russia is going through artillery at an unsustainable rate. Estimates suggest that Russia has fired more than 10 million artillery shells in the last year alone. Despite investing in new production, Russia lacks the ability to sustain this pace without outside support. Estimates suggest Russia is currently unable to produce even 2 million artillery shells a year-well short of its current firing rate.
To maintain its fight in Ukraine, Russia needs to find outside sources to replenish its stocks. To do this, Moscow has largely turned to countries already under sanctions while other potential suppliers, such as China, have been reluctant to provide weapons. Iran, for example, is known to have provided Russia with drones, but is also believed to be providing Russia with bullets and mortar shells.
This is where North Korea comes into Russian calculations. It is believed to have stockpiles of artillery shells numbering in the tens of millions. Kim Jong-un has also visited weapons factories in North Korea, urging them to increase production.
Because Russia still uses many systems dating back to the Cold War, North Korea's artillery is easily compatible with Russian weapons systems. With Pyongyang already under significant sanctions it has little to lose in providing Russia with weapons and much to gain, potentially.
The outlines of a deal are largely expected to include the provision of North Korean artillery shells in exchange for food, fuel and access to designs for advanced Russian weaponry. Putin recently suggested that satellite and missile technology are on the table stating "That's exactly why we came here (Vostochny Cosmodrome). The leader of North Korea shows great interest in space, in rocketry, and they are trying to develop space. We'll show our new objects," North Korea is expected to also seek to acquire technology for nuclear-powered submarines.
Russia may initially try to hold back on the transfer of some of these technologies, but its need for artillery gives Pyongyang significant leverage in the negotiations. One possibility that is less discussed, is that should the war continue to go against Russia, it may later turn to North Korea to replace weapons systems as well. Becoming Moscow's arms dealer would provide Pyongyang with a significant opportunity to improve its ability to evade sanctions and enhance its weapons technology.
In addition to being a violation of U.N. sanctions for Russia to provide North Korea with technology that would advance its nuclear weapons or ballistic missile programs, it is also a violation of sanctions for Russia to purchase weapons from North Korea - something it is already believed to have done through the Wagner mercenary group. Russia's desperation in the war explains its actions, but for a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council to violate U.N. sanctions and potentially help in the development of systems designed to deliver weapons of mass destruction, undermines both the sanctions regime and international peace and security.
Seoul had long hoped that Russia would refrain from providing North Korea with advanced weapons if South Korea did not directly provide Ukraine with arms, but the Ukraine war was always likely to push Russia to turn to North Korea for support. With that now likely to occur, it raises the question of how South Korea should respond.
If South Korea has not already done so, it should discretely signal to Moscow that if it proceeds with the transfer of sensitive military technology to North Korea, it would have to reconsider its support for Ukraine. This is unlikely to change Russia's course, but it would begin opening the options for South Korea to support Ukraine more directly.
The more significant consideration is what the transfer of advanced weapons technology would mean for security on the Korean Peninsula. A sizable arms deal between Russia and North Korea would fundamentally change the dynamics for North Korea. Not only would the regime gain access to advanced weaponry, but with growing provisions of fuel and food from Moscow, it would significantly remove the pressure from U.N. economic sanctions. Given broader geopolitical trends we should expect China as well to lessen its enforcement of sanctions on North Korea.
For the foreseeable future, this means that traditional approaches to North Korea are not viable. Russian support, in combination with North Korean cybertheft, will remove the pressure many had hoped would return Pyongyang to the table. Those same realities, moreover, suggest that North Korea has little need for the benefits of engagement. Kaesong and other projects will be of little appeal to Pyongyang if it can gain similar benefits and keep its economy closed to the world beyond China and Russia. Dealing with North Korea will only become more difficult.
Source: Yonhap News Agency