PYONGYANG - Experts indicated on Wednesday that North Korea is poised to escalate its nuclear threats against the United States and South Korea in the coming year, with an aim to enhance its second-strike capabilities in the event of a nuclear attack.
According to Yonhap News Agency, a professor emeritus at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy (KNDA), North Korea has adopted the world's most aggressive nuclear posture due to its inadequate ability to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike. During a briefing on international relations prospects for the next year, he explained the prevailing nuclear doctrine among nations with second-strike capabilities, emphasizing the principle of mutual assured destruction.
Jun highlighted that North Korea's current nuclear arsenal, estimated at around 50 weapons, is likely insufficient to mount a retaliatory attack following a first strike from an adversary. Consequently, Pyongyang is planning to expand its nuclear weapon count to over 100 as quickly as possible.
Echoing Jun's assessment, Choi Woo-seon, another KNDA professor, suggested that North Korea could initiate provocations at any time in the upcoming year, although these actions are expected to be limited under the scope of the U.S. extended deterrence.
The discussion also touched upon the growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. Despite concerns raised by the U.S. government's October statement that North Korea had shipped over 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions to Russia, Jun expressed skepticism about Moscow transferring arms related to intercontinental ballistic missiles. He reasoned that Russia, as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council and a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, would likely avoid actions that could undermine its responsibilities in these roles.
This evaluation follows a notable meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in September, which had raised concerns about a potential arms deal between the two nations.