With less than a year remaining before the U.S. presidential election, the focus in Washington is increasingly on how the election's outcome may influence America's foreign policy, particularly in regard to alliances, diplomacy with North Korea, and the Sino-U.S. rivalry.
According to Yonhap News Agency, there is a growing concern over the potential implications of the election, scheduled for Nov. 5. The contest is largely anticipated to be between President Joe Biden, representing the Democratic Party, and former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican Party. However, factors such as Biden's age, Trump's legal issues, and the U.S. economic conditions add to the uncertainty of the outcome.
The foreign policy approaches of Biden and Trump towards alliances, North Korea, and international institutions are notably different. However, their stances on China are expected to be similar in many aspects, particularly regarding concerns over China's increasing assertiveness. Biden’s potential reelection may lead to a continued emphasis on strengthening alliances and partnerships, focusing on challenges like North Korea's nuclear threats and China's growing influence.
During his tenure, the Biden administration has reinforced multilateral groups, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and the AUKUS platform. It has also worked on enhancing trilateral security cooperation with South Korea and Japan, highlighted by a summit at Camp David in August.
On the other hand, Trump’s presidency was marked by a more transactional approach to alliances and frequent disputes with allies over defense contributions. His demand for South Korea to significantly increase its share for U.S. Forces Korea upkeep exemplified this stance. Additionally, his administration displayed isolationist tendencies, evidenced by withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement and reducing overseas involvement.
Regarding North Korea, the Biden administration is likely to continue bolstering U.S. extended deterrence and maintaining diplomatic openness, while Trump might seek leader-level engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The approaches towards trilateral cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo may also differ under Trump, potentially facing adjustments.
In terms of China policy, Biden and Trump are expected to have converging approaches, with Biden continuing export restrictions and Trump potentially maintaining trade pressure on Beijing. Both administrations would likely aim to manage the Sino-U.S. relationship to avoid conflict.
A recent New York Times and Siena College poll indicated Biden losing in key swing states in a potential matchup with Trump, adding another layer of unpredictability to the election's outcome.