Seoul – A report from South Korea's central bank, the Bank of Korea (BOK), suggests that North Korea's total fertility rate is significantly lower than previously estimated by the United Nations. This finding indicates a notable demographic shift in the reclusive state.
According to Yonhap News Agency, North Korea's total fertility rate, defined as the average number of children expected to be born to a woman over her lifetime, was estimated at 1.38 in the 2010s. This figure marks a decrease from 1.59 in the 2000s and 1.91 in the 1990s. These findings contrast with the U.N. population fund's estimate of 1.8 for 2023 and are well below the replacement level of 2.1, necessary to maintain North Korea's population at its current level of 26 million.
The report's data were gathered from a survey of North Korean defectors, involving inquiries about the marriage and childbirth experiences of 1,137 relatives and friends still in North Korea.
The BOK's report highlights unique demographic trends in North Korea. Despite being a low-income country, North Korea's fertility rate remains exceptionally low. The report attributes this to delayed marriages, an increase in women's economic activities, particularly in marketplaces, and growing individualism in cities like Pyongyang.
This demographic shift implies a potential decline in North Korea's working-age population (ages 15 to 64) from 2021-2030 and a possible decrease in the total population. The report also suggests that these trends in North Korea could complicate any demographic benefits that might be anticipated from a potential unification with South Korea, which is facing its own challenges with a rapidly aging population and declining working-age demographic.
Notably, earlier this month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for measures to address the falling birthrate, marking the first time the issue has been publicly acknowledged by the regime. This was highlighted during the first national meeting of mothers in North Korea in 11 years, as reported by Seoul's unification ministry.