Seoul - South Korea is facing a steep decline in its economically active population, expected to drop by nearly 10 million by the year 2044, amid persistently low birth rates. Data released Monday by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for the Future projects a significant reduction in the number of people aged 15 to 64, from 36.57 million in 2023 to 27.17 million in 2044.
According to Yonhap News Agency, This demographic shift is accompanied by a stark decrease in school enrollments, with the number of elementary school freshmen set to halve from 430,000 last year to 220,000 in 2033. The report also forecasts a sharp increase in deaths over births, predicting 746,000 deaths in 2060 compared to only 156,000 births, leading to a natural population decline of 590,000. Consequently, South Korea's total population is estimated to decrease from 51.71 million in 2023 to 39.69 million by 2065. The institute warned, "The decline in the economically active population will damage consumption, leading to the collapse of the domestic market. It will also increase the burden of supporting the senior population, leading to an economic slowdown and prolonged low growth." South Korea’s total fertility rate hit a record low of 0.72 in 2023, well below the 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain a stable population without immigration. February 2024 marked a new low for births, with only 19,362 babies born, the fewest for any February since records began in 1981.